Research & Books
My research and books deal with the interplay of demography, economics, and financial markets. I became a believer in the vast explanatory power of demography through my career in banking. I was an eyewitness to two of the greatest boom periods in human history: first the bubble economy in Japan in the 1980s and then its near identical counterpart in the US in the 1990s. Both bubble periods ended in pronounced busts. Eerie time-lagged parallels between the two countries’ developments continue to this day. I spotted demography as the key reason for these parallels. Japan is ahead of the US and other developed countries in the ageing of its population by a decade. As such, Japan holds valuable lessons for other countries.
The United States & Japan - Twins in Denial (2011), subtitled It’s demographics, stupid! provides an update to The Harder They Fall (2004) – Will the US follow Japan into the Abyss? Both books make specific forecasts which have closely borne out. Judge for yourself!
My forthcoming book will detail how the demographic trajectory of all developed countries is set to collide with their debt fueled economics. And how each one of us can prepare for this dramatic development - and welcome it. A beautiful world lies beyond.